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Domestic steel trend in the second half of the year will be good

2023-11-02
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In the first half of this year, the output of automobiles and home appliances was significantly higher than the same period in previous years, mainly due to policy support, the release of consumer demand after the epidemic, and the improvement of the export situation. At the same time, the output of construction machinery recovered slightly from last year.

In the second half of this year, the fundamentals of China's steel market will show the following characteristics:

One is that steel demand will remain resilient. At present, the market parties to the country to introduce a package of economic stability policy measures expected to increase significantly. The executive meeting of The State Council held recently also stressed that qualified policies and measures should be introduced in a timely manner and implemented promptly. Subsequently, a series of policy documents such as the Announcement on the continuation and Optimization of the Purchase tax reduction and Exemption Policy for New energy Vehicles, the Guiding Opinions on Further Building a high-quality charging infrastructure System, the Opinions on Promoting the development and growth of the private Economy, and the Guiding Opinions on actively and Steadily Promoting the transformation of urban villages in super-large megacities were successively released. National ministries and commissions have also released information on stable growth and introduced policies to promote the consumption of automobiles and home appliances.

Second, the motivation of steel enterprises to voluntarily reduce production is insufficient. According to statistics, in the first half of this year, China's crude steel production reached 535.64 million tons, an increase of 1.3%; Pig iron output reached 451.56 million tons, up 2.7% year-on-year. Due to the existence of oversupply in the upstream coal coke end and the situation of yielding profits to steel enterprises, although the operation situation of steel enterprises has deteriorated, it has always been in a state of low profit, resulting in steel production has always maintained a certain toughness. From mid-late April to the end of May, steel enterprises took the initiative to reduce production and overhaul, but mainly in the way of reducing production of electric furnace and reducing the amount of scrap added in the long process, and pig iron production remained high.

Third, the price of raw fuel has risen again after a sharp fall. At present, iron ore prices are still at a high level, and high ore prices continue to stimulate overseas mines to actively ship.

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