After the Spring Festival, steel prices did not usher in the expected opening. The market gave hope, drained confidence, and plunged all the way down; Today, a news that has not been confirmed, and let the capital seize the ' hard beat ' , the steel price is pulled down by the raw materials, fast back and forth, moving like a rabbit, and in a blink of an eye, it is pulled back, as if nothing happened in these two days.
And how many choppy waves are behind this, how many air fights. The steel mill suppressed the raw materials, started from the ' double focus ' , and used the ' seven wounded fist ' technique, which resulted in its own loss and led to the negative feedback logic; End demand enterprises have not resumed work, have been targeted by the market, steel prices began to rise slowly, waiting for market acceptance; And steel traders in the middle is more uncomfortable, the spot is squeezed by steel mills and the market, but also by the disturbance of financial capital, was coerced to crawl forward. Without realizing it, we began to walk into the worst decade of the steel industry.
In accordance with national requirements, the steel industry is in the process of industrial transformation and adjustment, which can be seen from the entire steel demand change structure last year. Last year, steel domestic demand showed three major characteristics:lower real estate demand, infrastructure support, and manufacturing power. In recent years, industrial policy support for specific downstream manufacturing industries, such as automotive, shipbuilding and energy, has finally achieved the propeller of China's economy in the face of challenges, which led to the growth of China's steel domestic demand last year.
This is a critical year for the steel industry. The policy declaration of ' seeking progress in stability ' and ' standing before breaking ' and the goals of the two sessions around the country have proposed that the manufacturing industry will be the center of gravity of economic development in 2024, the so-called ' standing ' . On the basis of ' standing ' resolutely ' breaking ' . ' Standing ' and ' breaking ' are dialectical unity. This has also set the tone for the steel industry and defined the pace and pace of development.
It is estimated that the annual growth rate of crude steel consumption in 2024 will be 1.2%, which is slower than that in 2023, reflecting ' stability ' . In the downstream steel industry, it is expected that energy, containers and steel structures will drive high growth in crude steel demand; The shipbuilding, automobile and home appliance manufacturing and other industries, after experiencing growth, the growth rate this year or will slow down.
The growth rate of demand has slowed down, and the pattern of steel supply and demand has improved. Domestic trillion national debt to support the demand for infrastructure; With the upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the improvement of the global competitive advantages of the automobile, home appliances, shipbuilding and other industries, the overall demand will be stable and improve. The upward elasticity of China's crude steel production in 2024 is limited; As the overseas economy enters a recession cycle, the price of energy and raw materials on the cost side is expected to return, the supply will more match the demand, and the profit side is expected to bottom out.
Of course ' this year is going to be the best year of the next decade. ' This is the famous saying of an expert at the 2023 Steel Industry Digital Transformation Conference.
The steel industry in 2024 should still have confidence, although the current development of the steel industry is still confused, but the real estate is basically at the bottom, our series of real estate policies, public rental housing, dual use, urban village transformation three projects to promote the demand for steel, real estate construction area may go down, but not much. On the whole, the steel price this year will be better than last year, and the steel used in real estate will not be lower than the steel used last year.
In addition, infrastructure will still underpin steel demand this year. However, under the pressure of local debt, the growth rate of demand continues to slow. At the same time, it should be noted that the regional differences in the growth of steel demand this year are widening. From the approval restrictions on infrastructure projects in 12 provinces and the distribution of manufacturing industrial clusters, it is expected that the growth of steel demand in economically strong provinces will be faster than that in inland provinces this year.
Li Guangbo, chief analyst of China Steel Net, also said, ' The first point of view is that the demand in 2024 will not be too bad, which is our peak season demand, especially the demand for gold, silver and silver four is not good, nor can it confirm that our overall demand in 2024 is not good, and I think there is not much space below; The second point is that I think the real risk may be in the second half of the year, the real opportunity is also in the second half of the year. At the same time, it will face overseas elections in the second half of the year, coupled with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. My overall view is that the risk is not big in the first half of the year, every dip is an opportunity, even if the demand is not good in March and April, it can not falsify the story, the overall annual average price of steel I am still optimistic to move up a little. '
This year, the steel industry is a year of structural change, and it may also be a year of volatility, and there are risks and opportunities in the adjustment. Entering the beginning of the next decade, as a member of the steel industry, we must control risks and make adequate preparations to meet the risks and opportunities brought by the industry.